Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
