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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.