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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still